No matter how Donald Trump might like to frame it, much of the rest of the world saw a costly disaster in Iran. But what did China see? Did they see David's strength in defense or Goliath's inability to attack? We're talking about China's ambition in Taiwan. Did the American and Israeli war on Iran make it more or less likely China would invade, blockade, or do what exactly in relation to Taiwan?
My fear right now is that Beijing could look at the situation and conclude that the Americans are simply overwhelmed or incapable of achieving their objectives. I think that would be a very dangerous miscalculation, but that's not one that we can certainly rule out. The blockade of the straight of Hormuz and all of its side effects, the massive economic cost, did that do more to potentially deter China from risking anything like that around the Strait of Taiwan? The conflict in the Middle East made it clear that in the modern age in the globalized world, no armed conflict would occur in a vacuum.
The correlation between the Straight of Hormuz and the Taiwan Strait is critical. The globalized world is much more reliant upon and exposed to an open and free Taiwan Strait than the straight of Hormuz. The repercussions of conflict in the Middle East would be by orders of magnitude much more severe if there were to be armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait or even just a quarantine or a blockade. The deterrence against China making that kind of decision and taking military action in the Taiwan Strait is critical. The decision to use force against Taiwan would have severe consequences for the global economy.
